Texas early voting pace slightly behind 2018, Harris County sets midterm record

Who's involved

• Derek Ryan · Republican consultant and data analyst^[1]
• Mark Jones · Political science professor at Rice University^[1]
• Vinny Minchillo · GOP strategist^[1]
• Matt Angle · Democratic strategist^[1]

The facts

1. Nearly 4.5 million Texans cast a ballot in the first seven days of early voting from Oct. 19 through Oct. 23, 2026.^[1]
2. From Oct. 19 through Oct. 23, 2026, 23.4% of registered Texas voters had cast a ballot or voted by mail.^[1]
3. In 2018, the turnout was 24.3% in the first seven days of early voting.^[1]
4. Harris County set a record for turnout for the first day of early voting in a midterm when more than 127,000 voted.^[1]
5. Dallas County set a record for the most early votes on day one of any election when more than 88,000 people cast a ballot.^[1]
6. Early voting closes Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026. Election Day is Nov. 3, 2026.^[1]
7. In an analysis of the first five days of early voting, those who had previously voted in a Democratic primary accounted for 36% of ballots cast, compared to 35% for Republican primary voters, with about 25% having not previously voted or participated only in a general election, and 4% having mixed primary participation.^[1]

Who said what

• Derek Ryan, Republican consultant and data analyst Expects the pace of early voting to increase this week, leading to a busy day at the polls on Friday when early voting closes, predicting anywhere between 20 to 30% of votes in the election could be cast on Oct. 23, 24, and 25, 2026.^[1]
• Derek Ryan Predicts as many as 10 million Texans may turn out to vote, which would put 2026's final turnout in the neighborhood of 2018's 53%.^[1]
• Derek Ryan The early Democratic numbers were unprecedented: 'This is actually new territory. I don't think that I ever recall a point where voters with previous Democratic primary history have outnumbered voters with previous Republican primary history.'^[1]
• Mark Jones, political science professor at Rice University There is sometimes a tendency to over-interpret early vote numbers because there are not good benchmarks, and every election tends to be a little unique.^[1]
• Vinny Minchillo, GOP strategist The initial Democratic surge shows their enthusiasm remains higher than the GOP's, but it has also driven Republican turnout across the state, and he is cautiously optimistic about Republican turnout.^[1]
• Matt Angle, Democratic strategist Strong turnout in urban counties, coupled with rural voters accounting for less than 25% of all votes cast, is good news for Democrats, and Democrats are ahead of the pace that was in 2022.^[1]